This is a simple probability calculation. In order to have a statistically significant result, we first need to obtain the average and standard deviation of shot rate from the collected data. For the purposes of this example, we will assume that the average is 60% (3/5) and the standard deviation is 20%. These can be calculated using the AVERAGE and STDEV functions in Excel.
From this information we can determine the probability of achieving a target shot rate of 80% (4/5). The following spreadsheet and formula in cell B4 illustrates.
Excel Spreadsheet:
A
B
1
Target Rate:
80%
2
Average:
60%
3
Standard Dev:
20%
4
Probability:
=1-NORMDIST(B1,B2,B3,TRUE)
The result in cell B4 is 16% (representing the probability of achieving an 80% shoot rate) and this will change based on the average and standard deviation.
In regards to the second question, the target rate should remain unchanged as whether the shooter makes 5 shots or 10 shots, the probability of achieving the target remains unchanged.
